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The recent ousting of Kim Ogg in Houston, José Garza's re-election in Austin, and the removal of three members from the "Government Always Wins" faction on the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals mark a significant shift in criminal justice reform politics in Texas compared to a decade ago. Democrats in major Texas counties increasingly support reform, evidenced by their decisive choices for progressive candidates. Conversely, the slate of candidates backed by Ken Paxton, who ousted Sharon Keller, Barbara Hervey, and Michelle Slaughter, signals a willingness to challenge constitutional precedent and empower the Attorney General over local prosecutors. This shift suggests that meaningful opportunities for criminal justice reform in Texas may primarily arise at the local level, given the current political landscape at the state level.

These developments highlight a broader trend in which criminal justice reform, once a bipartisan issue in Texas, has become increasingly polarized. The upheaval of the bipartisan coalition, which persisted until around 2019, can be attributed to various factors, including the political climate during the latter years of the Trump administration, pandemic-related protests, and the events of January 6th. This shift has led to the emergence of a more radical conservatism that prioritizes culture-war issues over pragmatic governance, further complicating reform efforts at the state level.

Looking ahead, it appears that significant opportunities for criminal justice reform in Texas will likely emerge primarily at the local level. State-level politics currently face significant barriers, given the prevailing ideologies and characters within the upper echelons of the GOP. As such, focusing on local initiatives may offer the most viable path forward for advocates seeking meaningful reform in the near term.

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